Unlike last week, this is a Big One. Not THE Big One, but a big one. The winner gets a share of first place in the AFC North, a prime position for a playoff spot … and some stretch-run swagger.
Remember, last week we called the Pittsburgh game a non must-win game -just a must-be-competitive game. Last week was all about avoiding being blown out, being blown up, being blown to shreds - or blowing, period. But this Baltimore game is different. While it too is not an absolute must-win – it’s a very, very big need-to-win game.
Sure, the mercurial Ravens (6-3) have logged some impressive wins, including the eye-popping season sweep over first-place Pittsburgh. Baffling, though, are Ravens losses to the Girl Scouts of America and Little Sisters of the Poor – dropping games to Tennessee following the first Pittsburgh win, Jacksonville, and last week’s 22-17 sleeper at Seattle (yes, all Baltimore losses have all come against teams Cincinnati beat).
Make no mistake, the Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) are no longer the Little Sisters of the Poor. Last week’s game against the Steelers (the top-ranked AFC team) proved it.
After spotting Pittsburgh 14 points in the first ten minutes, and surrendering its best offensive weapon, A.J. Green, and top defensive back, Leon Hall, Cincinnati played the Steelers nose-to-nose, tit-for-tat, while having a chance at a game-tying TD in the game’s last two minutes.
But, after Cincinnati rallied back to tie the score at 17, rookie QB Andy Dalton tossed a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions in the 24-17 loss (his 14 TDs through nine games are the most for a rookie since the AFL-NFL merger).
Despite hanging with 7-3 Pittsburgh, the Bengals came out of the game with more than just a key division loss. Green said Wednesday his injury will make him a game-time decision against the Ravens, while star cornerback Leon Hall is done for the season after tearing his Achilles’ tendon.
The Bengals now look to CBs Nate Clements, Kelly Jennings, second-year corner Brandon Ghee and Pacman Jones, who hopes to return this week after missing two games with a hamstring injury. But with Hall out, QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense figure to take even more chances through the air – particularly considering Cincinnati has the NFL’s second-best run defense at 86.8 yards per game.
While the Bengals already-suspect pass defense in wounded, Flacco’s passing history against Cincinnati isn’t pretty with just two touchdown passes and nine interceptions while being sacked 11 times and posting a 48.2 passer rating in his past four games – three losses. He threw a career-high 52 times in Seattle, though much of that total stemmed from the Ravens playing from behind the entire game (Note: the Ravens defense has allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt the past three weeks after surrendering 4.7 during the previous three games).
The Ravens have won six straight and 14 of 15 at home, including a 13-7 win over the Bengals on Jan. 2 in which they forced five turnovers. But Baltimore has averaged three turnovers over in its last eight games versus Cincinnati, and we see that happening again Sunday. Look for Dalton to have one of his best games and Bernard Scott to logged his most carries and yards. The Bengals hold Baltimore to under 100 yards rushing.
Oddbounces Prediction: Bengals, 27-20*
* If Green plays. Otherwise, Baltimore 20-13.
